In terms of natural gas, the region will consume an estimated 391bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 483bcm targeted for 2015, representing 23.7% growth
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Luce Energy forecast that Bahrain will account for 0.56% of Middle East regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.33% of supply. Middle East regional oil use of 4.98mn barrels per day in 2001 will rise to an estimated 7.40mn b/d in 2010. It should average 7.70mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 8.70mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 22.83mn b/d in 2001 and will average an estimated 24.96mn b/d in 2010. After an estimated 25.22mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 27.24mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 17.85mn b/d. This total will ease to an estimated 17.55mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 18.54mn b/d by 2015.
In terms of natural gas, the region will consume an estimated 391bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 483bcm targeted for 2015, representing 23.7% growth. Production of an estimated 467bcm in 2010 should reach 614bcm in 2015 (+31.4%), which implies net exports rising to 130bcm by the end of the period. Bahrainís estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 3.38%, while its share of production is put at 2.83%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.65%, with the country accounting for 2.72% of supply.
Bahrainís real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 1.3% in 2010, with average annual growth of 4.8% forecast in 2010-2015. Consumption of oil is set to rise with the moderate growth of the economy, reaching a maximum of 49,000b/d by 2015. The state accounts for all domestic oil and gas production, as well as the refining and distribution segment. International oil company (IOC) involvement is somewhat limited. Thanks to modest resource potential and few large-scale IOC upstream ventures, crude and liquids output is now averaging approximately 55,000b/d, with potential to reach 90,000b/d by 2015. Gas output is set to increase from an estimated 13.2bcm in 2010 to 16.7bcm by 2015, with imports of 1.0bcm required by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Bahrain oil production of 81.8%, with crude volumes doubling to 100,000b/d before the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 38.1%, with growth at an assumed 3% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 58,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to climb towards 18bcm by 2019/20. With 2010-2020 demand growth of 79.1%, this provides an import requirement of around 5.9bcm by 2020. Details of BMIís 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Luce Energy was founded in 2007 and today is one of the leading privately held independent energy companies. Luce Energy, its subsidiaries and affiliated entities, engage in oil and gas exploration and production activities mainly in the Middle East region. In addition, Luce Energy is integrally involved in the start-up of major liquefied natural gas projects in Yemen.
Mahmoud Al Alawi
Press Coordinator - Luce Energy